Today / Norway - 1st Division / Moss vs Strommen

Moss vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Moss

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Strommen

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.1%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.8%1-17.3%1-25.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.9%3-25.3%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-17.1%4+-25.4%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 48.8% 2.05 +6.8%

Draw 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

Away win 27.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.8%

Over 2.5 68.2% 70.4% 1.42 -3.2%

Over 3.5 48.2% 48.8% 2.05 -1.2%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 1–2✓ 5.6%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moss2.4

Strommen1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSS · PPG 1.11

STROMMEN · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Moss (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +6.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.6%

Strommen (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moss face Strommen in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moss a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Strommen 27%, so Moss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Moss and 1.5 for Strommen (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moss are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Strommen. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +37.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Moss vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1st Division Predictions