Today / Norway - 1st Division / Strommen vs Raufoss

Strommen vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 16:00

Strommen

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Raufoss

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.3%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.4%1-19.0%1-26.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.7%3-16.5%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 54.1% 1.85 -4.0%

Draw 21.8% 26.7% 3.75 -10.9%

Away win 26.4% 29.9% 3.35 -6.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 67.6% 1.48 +0.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

BTTS 63.1% 70.4% 1.42 -10.4%

Home O1.5 59.6% 61.7% 1.62 -3.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 3–1✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strommen2.1

Raufoss1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMMEN · PPG 0.89

RAUFOSS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Strommen (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.9%

Raufoss (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strommen face Raufoss in Norway - 1st Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strommen a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Raufoss 26%, so Strommen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Strommen and 1.4 for Raufoss (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strommen are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.67 for Raufoss. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Strommen vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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