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hodd vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

hodd

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stabaek

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.4%0-26.4%0-34.2%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.2%1-36.1%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.7%2-34.4%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 19.0% 5.25 +33.6%

Draw 21.7% 22.7% 4.40 -2.7%

Away win 48.5% 69.0% 1.45 -29.7%

Over 2.5 68.2% 73.5% 1.36 -7.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 51.8% 1.93 -13.2%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 38.2% 2.62 +5.1%

Away O1.5 56.9% 75.2% 1.33 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.1%

A 48% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1✓ 6.7%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

hodd1.4

Stabaek2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HODD · PPG 2.11

STABAEK · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

hodd (H) 29.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +33.6%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.7%

Stabaek (A) 48.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

hodd face Stabaek in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives hodd a 30% chance, the draw 22% and Stabaek 49%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for hodd and 2.0 for Stabaek (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, hodd are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.80 for Stabaek. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.6%. This match finished 2-1.

hodd vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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