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Kongsvinger vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Kongsvinger

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Lyn

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.8%1-15.6%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.1%2-18.3%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-112.4%4+-27.3%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 66.7% 1.50 -4.0%

Draw 15.3% 21.1% 4.75 -16.4%

Away win 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

Over 2.5 71.3% 83.3% 1.20 -14.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 65.4% 1.53 -24.4%

BTTS 63.1% 78.1% 1.28 -19.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 82.0% 1.22 -5.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 50.0% 2.00 -34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 64% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–1 5.6%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger2.9

Lyn1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.3% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER · PPG 2.44

LYN · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 2.44 vs 1.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -4.0%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -16.4%

Lyn (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger face Lyn in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Lyn 21%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Kongsvinger and 1.2 for Lyn (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.22 for Lyn. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 4-4.

Kongsvinger vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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