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Bayreuth vs Unterhaching Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Bayreuth

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Unterhaching

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-114.0%0-213.7%0-38.9%0-4+6.9%1 1-04.9%1-19.5%1-29.3%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.7%2-13.2%2-23.2%2-32.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.1% 22.2% 4.50 -45.6%

Draw 20.3% 26.3% 3.80 -22.9%

Away win 67.6% 61.7% 1.62 +9.5%

Over 2.5 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Over 3.5 27.3% 35.1% 2.85 -22.2%

BTTS 42.4% 58.8% 1.70 -27.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob42.4%

A 68% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.0%

#2 0–2 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–3 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayreuth0.7

Unterhaching2.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYREUTH · PPG 1.53

UNTERHACHING · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.53) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bayreuth (H) 12.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -45.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -22.9%

Unterhaching (A) 67.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayreuth face Unterhaching in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayreuth a 12% chance, the draw 20% and Unterhaching 68%, so Unterhaching are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Bayreuth and 2.0 for Unterhaching (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayreuth are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 2.00 for Unterhaching. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Bayreuth vs Unterhaching Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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