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Bayern Munich B vs Aubstadt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Bayern Munich B

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aubstadt

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.3%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.1%1-18.9%1-26.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.3%3-16.3%3-24.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.2%4+-23.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 48.8% 2.05 +5.4%

Draw 21.3% 28.6% 3.50 -25.4%

Away win 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

Over 2.5 68.4% 60.6% 1.65 +12.9%

Over 3.5 46.9% 38.5% 2.60 +21.9%

BTTS 67.1% 65.4% 1.53 +2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob67.1%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Munich B2.1

Aubstadt1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MUNICH B · PPG 1.80

AUBSTADT · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Munich B (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +5.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -25.4%

Aubstadt (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Munich B face Aubstadt in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Munich B a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Aubstadt 27%, so Bayern Munich B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Bayern Munich B and 1.5 for Aubstadt (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Munich B are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.53 for Aubstadt. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Bayern Munich B vs Aubstadt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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