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Aschaffenburg vs Nurnberg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Aschaffenburg

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Nurnberg B

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-111.8%0-213.4%0-310.1%0-4+9.8%1 1-03.6%1-18.1%1-29.2%1-37.0%1-4+6.8%2 2-01.2%2-12.8%2-23.2%2-32.4%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.7% 16.7% 6.00 -41.8%

Draw 17.0% 23.1% 4.33 -26.4%

Away win 73.3% 69.4% 1.44 +5.5%

Over 2.5 56.8% 62.5% 1.60 -9.1%

Over 3.5 34.4% 40.0% 2.50 -14.0%

BTTS 44.7% 58.8% 1.70 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob44.7%

A 73% / xG 0.7-2.3 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.4%

#2 0–1✓ 11.8%

#3 0–3 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aschaffenburg0.7

Nurnberg B2.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ASCHAFFENBURG · PPG 0.67

NURNBERG B · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Aschaffenburg (H) 9.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -41.8%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -26.4%

Nurnberg B (A) 73.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aschaffenburg face Nurnberg B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aschaffenburg a 10% chance, the draw 17% and Nurnberg B 73%, so Nurnberg B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Aschaffenburg and 2.3 for Nurnberg B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aschaffenburg are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.14 for Nurnberg B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Aschaffenburg vs Nurnberg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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