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Finnsnes vs Lillestrøm II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:30

Finnsnes

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lillestrøm II

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.1%0-21.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.5%1-15.7%1-24.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.7%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.2%3-17.0%3-25.8%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-19.1%4+-27.5%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% — — —

Draw 19.8% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 72.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.0% — — —

BTTS 69.2% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 1–1 5.7%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finnsnes2.7

Lillestrøm II1.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FINNSNES · PPG 2.38

LILLESTRØM II · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Finnsnes (H) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lillestrøm II (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Finnsnes face Lillestrøm II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finnsnes a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Lillestrøm II 24%, so Finnsnes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Finnsnes and 1.7 for Lillestrøm II (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finnsnes are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.29 for Lillestrøm II. This match finished 0-1.

Finnsnes vs Lillestrøm II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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