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Lyngby vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 27 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Lyngby

PPG 2.08 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Esbjerg

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2% — a clear edge.

+19.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.3%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.9%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.7%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-18.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.5% 59.2% 1.69 +19.1%

Draw 17.1% 27.0% 3.70 -36.7%

Away win 12.4% 23.0% 4.35 -46.1%

Over 2.5 64.4% 58.8% 1.70 +9.5%

Over 3.5 42.3% 36.4% 2.75 +16.3%

BTTS 54.4% 60.6% 1.65 -10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.4%

H 70% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyngby2.4

Esbjerg0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LYNGBY · PPG 2.08

ESBJERG · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.08) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Lyngby (H) 70.5%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV +19.1%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -36.7%

Esbjerg (A) 12.4%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -46.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyngby face Esbjerg in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyngby a 71% chance, the draw 17% and Esbjerg 12%, so Lyngby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lyngby and 0.9 for Esbjerg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyngby are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.31 for Esbjerg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 5-0.

Lyngby vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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