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Neusiedl vs Gloggnitz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 28 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Neusiedl

PPG 1.08 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gloggnitz

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.7%0-25.6%0-34.5%0-4+4.6%1 1-03.1%1-17.3%1-28.7%1-36.9%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.4%2-15.6%2-26.7%2-35.3%2-4+5.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.9%3-23.4%3-32.7%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.6%4+-21.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -22.2%

Draw 19.4% 24.4% 4.10 -20.5%

Away win 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Over 2.5 74.9% 73.5% 1.36 +1.9%

Over 3.5 55.0% — — —

BTTS 71.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob71.2%

A 56% / xG 1.5-2.4 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 1–3 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neusiedl1.5

Gloggnitz2.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEUSIEDL · PPG 1.08

GLOGGNITZ · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Neusiedl (H) 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -22.2%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -20.5%

Gloggnitz (A) 56.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neusiedl face Gloggnitz in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neusiedl a 24% chance, the draw 19% and Gloggnitz 56%, so Gloggnitz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Neusiedl and 2.4 for Gloggnitz (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neusiedl are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.69 for Gloggnitz. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 1-5.

Neusiedl vs Gloggnitz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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