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Monza vs Modena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Monza

PPG 2.47 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Modena

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-16.3%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-110.4%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-18.6%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.0%3-14.7%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-12.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 61.7% 1.62 +2.4%

Draw 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -9.6%

Away win 13.0% 19.0% 5.25 -31.8%

Over 2.5 39.1% 54.1% 1.85 -27.7%

Over 3.5 19.1% 30.8% 3.25 -37.9%

BTTS 36.3% 54.6% 1.83 -33.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob36.3%

H 63% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.4%

#2 2–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monza1.7

Modena0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MONZA · PPG 2.47

MODENA · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

Monza (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +2.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.6%

Modena (A) 13.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monza face Modena in Italy - Serie B on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monza a 63% chance, the draw 24% and Modena 13%, so Monza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Monza and 0.6 for Modena (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monza are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.41 for Modena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Monza vs Modena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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