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Luzern B vs Cham Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Luzern B

PPG 1.77 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cham

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.3%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.0%1-17.8%1-25.2%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.6%3-17.3%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.6%4+-25.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 43.5% 2.30 +39.8%

Draw 19.0% 29.4% 3.40 -35.4%

Away win 20.2% 40.0% 2.50 -49.5%

Over 2.5 71.2% — — —

Over 3.5 50.2% — — —

BTTS 66.3% 76.9% 1.30 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob66.3%

H 61% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern B2.4

Cham1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.2% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN B · PPG 1.77

CHAM · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Luzern B (H) 60.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +39.8%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -35.4%

Cham (A) 20.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -49.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern B face Cham in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern B a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Cham 20%, so Luzern B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Luzern B and 1.3 for Cham (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern B are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.08 for Cham. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Luzern B vs Cham Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion Predictions