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Nurnberg W vs Hamburger SV W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:30

Nurnberg W

PPG 0.91 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hamburger SV W

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+24.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.2%0-23.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.4%1-18.1%1-27.5%1-34.6%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.7%3-15.1%3-24.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.8%4+-23.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 40.8% 2.45 +0.7%

Draw 21.3% 29.0% 3.45 -26.5%

Away win 37.6% 40.8% 2.45 -7.9%

Over 2.5 73.0% 58.8% 1.70 +24.1%

Over 3.5 52.5% 36.4% 2.75 +44.4%

BTTS 72.2% 64.5% 1.55 +11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob72.2%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nurnberg W1.9

Hamburger SV W1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NURNBERG W · PPG 0.91

HAMBURGER SV W · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.91), Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Nurnberg W (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +0.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -26.5%

Hamburger SV W (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nurnberg W face Hamburger SV W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nurnberg W a 41% chance, the draw 21% and Hamburger SV W 38%, so Nurnberg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nurnberg W and 1.9 for Hamburger SV W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nurnberg W are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.82 for Hamburger SV W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Nurnberg W vs Hamburger SV W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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