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Al Hazm vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 29 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:10

Al Hazm

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Riyadh

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.0%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.9%1-111.5%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 39.2% 2.55 +24.2%

Draw 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -14.6%

Away win 26.9% 39.2% 2.55 -31.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 54.6% 1.83 -2.3%

Over 3.5 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 9.9%

#3 2–1✓ 9.5%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Hazm1.6

Al Riyadh1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL HAZM · PPG 1.43

AL RIYADH · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Al Hazm (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +24.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.6%

Al Riyadh (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Hazm face Al Riyadh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Hazm a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Al Riyadh 27%, so Al Hazm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Hazm and 1.2 for Al Riyadh (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Hazm are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.64 for Al Riyadh. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Al Hazm vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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