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Hércules vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:30

Hércules

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Real Murcia

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-19.3%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.8%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 36.4% 2.75 +28.4%

Draw 27.1% 38.2% 2.62 -17.4%

Away win 26.1% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.0% 2.38 +20.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.0% 51.3% 1.95 +1.4%

Home O1.5 38.0% 30.8% 3.25 +23.5%

Away O1.5 25.7% 36.4% 2.75 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.0%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hércules1.4

Real Murcia0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HÉRCULES · PPG 1.90

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hércules (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +28.4%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.4%

Real Murcia (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hércules face Real Murcia in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hércules a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Real Murcia 26%, so Hércules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hércules and 0.9 for Real Murcia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hércules are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.42 for Real Murcia. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Hércules vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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