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Al Nassr vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Al Nassr

PPG 2.77 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Ittifaq

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 91.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-10.8%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.8%1-12.9%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.1%2-15.5%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-16.8%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-028.1%4+-117.0%4+-25.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 91.0% 87.0% 1.15 +4.7%

Draw 6.4% 13.2% 7.60 -51.4%

Away win 2.6% 7.1% 14.00 -63.6%

Over 2.5 80.8% 82.0% 1.22 -1.4%

Over 3.5 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

BTTS 44.3% 59.9% 1.67 -26.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.3%

H 91% / xG 3.7-0.6 / O2.5 81% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.3%

#2 4–0 10.6%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 5–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nassr3.7

Al Ittifaq0.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASSR · PPG 2.77

AL ITTIFAQ · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.77), Away AVERAGE (1.23) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Nassr (H) 91.0%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV +4.7%

Draw 6.4%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV -51.4%

Al Ittifaq (A) 2.6%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV -63.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nassr face Al Ittifaq in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nassr a 91% chance, the draw 6% and Al Ittifaq 3%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Al Nassr and 0.6 for Al Ittifaq (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nassr are averaging 2.77 points per game versus 1.23 for Al Ittifaq. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Nassr vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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