Today / Croatia - First NL / Karlovac vs Dugopolje

Karlovac vs Dugopolje Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:00

Karlovac

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dugopolje

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.2% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+66.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-13.8%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.4%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.7%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-16.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.2% 43.5% 2.30 +66.1%

Draw 17.8% 36.4% 2.75 -51.0%

Away win 10.0% 34.5% 2.90 -71.0%

Over 2.5 54.7% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 43.6% 51.3% 1.95 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 72% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlovac2.2

Dugopolje0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLOVAC · PPG 2.00

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 0.92

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.92) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Karlovac (H) 72.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +66.1%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -51.0%

Dugopolje (A) 10.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -71.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlovac face Dugopolje in Croatia - First NL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlovac a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Dugopolje 10%, so Karlovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Karlovac and 0.7 for Dugopolje (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlovac are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.92 for Dugopolje. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +66.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Karlovac vs Dugopolje Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions