Karlovac vs Dugopolje Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Croatia - First NL Regular Season - 28 Stadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek· Karlovac Friday, April 24, 2026 16:00

Karlovac PPG 2.00

0-3 MISS

Dugopolje PPG 0.92

Home· +66.1% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlovac face Dugopolje in Croatia - First NL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlovac a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Dugopolje 10%, so Karlovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Karlovac and 0.7 for Dugopolje (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlovac are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.92 for Dugopolje. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +66.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 72.2%

Odds: 2.30 EV: +66.1%

Draw 17.8%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -51.0%

Away 10.0%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -71.0%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.7% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 32.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 43.6% Odds: 1.95 -15.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Karlovac

2.19

Dugopolje

0.67

Model SuggestionHome +66.1% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.92) - Strong consensus