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Gremio W vs São Paulo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:30

Gremio W

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

São Paulo W

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-113.5%0-27.3%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.2%2-16.7%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.1%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 36.4% 2.75 -10.6%

Draw 28.3% 34.5% 2.90 -10.8%

Away win 39.2% 42.0% 2.38 -6.7%

Over 2.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

BTTS 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away O1.5 32.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.5%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–0✓ 12.5%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio W1.0

São Paulo W1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO W · PPG 1.88

SÃO PAULO W · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gremio W (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.6%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.8%

São Paulo W (A) 39.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio W face São Paulo W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio W a 33% chance, the draw 28% and São Paulo W 39%, so São Paulo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gremio W and 1.1 for São Paulo W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio W are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.12 for São Paulo W. This match finished 0-0.

Gremio W vs São Paulo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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