Today / Brazil - Brasileiro Women / Atlético Mineiro W vs Gremio W

Atlético Mineiro W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 00:00

Atlético Mineiro W

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gremio W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-114.1%0-29.3%0-34.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.5%2-15.9%2-23.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -2.5%

Draw 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Away win 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.4% 3.65 +2.9%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away O1.5 42.6% 47.6% 2.10 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Mineiro W0.9

Gremio W1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO MINEIRO W · PPG 0.57

GREMIO W · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.41, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Mineiro W (H) 27.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Gremio W (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Mineiro W face Gremio W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Mineiro W a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Gremio W 45%, so Gremio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atlético Mineiro W and 1.3 for Gremio W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Mineiro W are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.50 for Gremio W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.9%.

Atlético Mineiro W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Brasileiro Women Predictions