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Al Fateh vs Al Khaleej Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 29 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 15:45

Al Fateh

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Khaleej

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.3%0-25.2%0-33.4%0-4+2.6%1 1-04.5%1-18.7%1-28.6%1-35.6%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.1%2-34.6%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.0%3-14.0%3-23.9%3-32.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

Draw 21.7% 27.4% 3.65 -20.8%

Away win 45.3% 34.5% 2.90 +31.4%

Over 2.5 70.0% 63.7% 1.57 +9.9%

Over 3.5 48.8% 41.7% 2.40 +17.1%

BTTS 69.5% 69.0% 1.45 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.5%

A 45% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Fateh1.7

Al Khaleej2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.0% · O3.5 PROB 48.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL FATEH · PPG 1.29

AL KHALEEJ · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Al Fateh (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -20.8%

Al Khaleej (A) 45.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Fateh face Al Khaleej in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Fateh a 33% chance, the draw 22% and Al Khaleej 45%, so Al Khaleej are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Fateh and 2.0 for Al Khaleej (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Fateh are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Khaleej. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Fateh vs Al Khaleej Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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