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Opatija vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 15:00

Opatija

PPG 1.23 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jarun

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.0%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.2%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Away win 19.6% 23.8% 4.20 -17.7%

Over 2.5 34.1% 45.5% 2.20 -25.0%

Over 3.5 15.5% — — —

BTTS 37.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.8%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0✓ 11.6%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Opatija1.4

Jarun0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.1% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OPATIJA · PPG 1.23

JARUN · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.23) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Opatija (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -6.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Jarun (A) 19.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Opatija face Jarun in Croatia - First NL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Opatija a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Jarun 20%, so Opatija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Opatija and 0.7 for Jarun (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Opatija are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.50 for Jarun. This match finished 2-0.

Opatija vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions