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Livyi Bereh vs Podillya K. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 13:00

Livyi Bereh

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Podillya K.

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.7% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-11.6%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.4%1-14.5%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.9%2-16.1%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.4%3-15.6%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-020.4%4+-17.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.7% 82.0% 1.22 +5.8%

Draw 10.2% 21.7% 4.60 -53.1%

Away win 3.0% 7.7% 13.00 -61.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 28.3% 43.5% 2.30 -34.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob28.3%

H 87% / xG 2.7-0.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.9%

#2 3–0 15.4%

#3 1–0✓ 12.4%

#4 4–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Livyi Bereh2.7

Podillya K.0.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVYI BEREH · PPG 2.25

PODILLYA K. · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away AVERAGE (1.08) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Livyi Bereh (H) 86.7%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 10.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -53.1%

Podillya K. (A) 3.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -61.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Livyi Bereh face Podillya K. in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Livyi Bereh a 87% chance, the draw 10% and Podillya K. 3%, so Livyi Bereh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Livyi Bereh and 0.4 for Podillya K. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Livyi Bereh are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.08 for Podillya K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Livyi Bereh vs Podillya K. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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