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Völsungur vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Völsungur

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

IR Reykjavik

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.7%0-23.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.9%1-18.0%1-26.4%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.9%3-16.2%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-15.6%4+-24.5%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 34.5% 2.90 +37.8%

Draw 22.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.3%

Away win 29.9% 47.6% 2.10 -22.3%

Over 2.5 68.1% 65.4% 1.53 +4.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 64.0% 47.6% 2.10 +34.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Völsungur2.2

IR Reykjavik1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 1.40

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Völsungur (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +37.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.3%

IR Reykjavik (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Völsungur face IR Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Völsungur a 48% chance, the draw 23% and IR Reykjavik 30%, so Völsungur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Völsungur and 1.6 for IR Reykjavik (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Völsungur are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.70 for IR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +56.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Völsungur vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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