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Krems / Rehberg vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:30

Krems / Rehberg

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Parndorf

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.8%0-24.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.3%1-110.0%1-28.0%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.9%3-23.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.1%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 45.5% 2.20 -13.1%

Draw 27.0% 26.7% 3.75 +0.8%

Away win 33.5% 39.2% 2.55 -14.6%

Over 2.5 59.5% 63.7% 1.57 -6.6%

Over 3.5 36.5% 42.9% 2.33 -14.9%

BTTS 55.1% 68.5% 1.46 -19.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Away O1.5 47.4% 48.3% 2.07 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -35.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.1%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krems / Rehberg1.7

Parndorf1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KREMS / REHBERG · PPG 1.90

PARNDORF · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Krems / Rehberg (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -13.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.8%

Parndorf (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krems / Rehberg face Parndorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krems / Rehberg a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Parndorf 34%, so Krems / Rehberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Krems / Rehberg and 1.6 for Parndorf (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krems / Rehberg are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.58 for Parndorf.

Krems / Rehberg vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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