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Fach-Donaufeld vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Fach-Donaufeld

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oberwart

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.0%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.2%1-110.6%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.6%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Draw 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Away win 27.6% 39.2% 2.55 -17.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 65.4% 1.53 -17.8%

Over 3.5 33.2% 44.1% 2.27 -24.6%

BTTS 54.5% 69.4% 1.44 -21.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Away O1.5 36.7% 49.8% 2.01 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -35.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fach-Donaufeld1.8

Oberwart1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FACH-DONAUFELD · PPG 1.78

OBERWART · PPG 1.65

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fach-Donaufeld (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Oberwart (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fach-Donaufeld face Oberwart in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fach-Donaufeld a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Oberwart 28%, so Fach-Donaufeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Fach-Donaufeld and 1.3 for Oberwart (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fach-Donaufeld are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.65 for Oberwart.

Fach-Donaufeld vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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