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Persib vs Arema Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 12:00

Persib

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Arema

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-13.0%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.2%1-16.8%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.6%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-16.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.7% 80.0% 1.25 -1.6%

Draw 15.2% 20.0% 5.00 -24.0%

Away win 6.1% 10.0% 10.00 -39.0%

Over 2.5 52.7% 65.4% 1.53 -19.4%

Over 3.5 30.5% 42.6% 2.35 -28.3%

BTTS 34.4% 52.6% 1.90 -34.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob34.4%

H 79% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.4%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 3–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persib2.3

Arema0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIB · PPG 3.00

AREMA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.29) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Persib (H) 78.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -1.6%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -24.0%

Arema (A) 6.1%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -39.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persib face Arema in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persib a 79% chance, the draw 15% and Arema 6%, so Persib are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Persib and 0.5 for Arema (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persib are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Arema. This match finished 0-0.

Persib vs Arema Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions