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Aresimi vs Shkupi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 10:00

Aresimi

PPG 1.38 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Shkupi

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

No PPG data

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.5%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.5%1-12.0%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.4%2-14.3%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.4%3-16.0%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-034.0%4+-119.7%4+-25.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 93.8% — — —

Draw 4.5% — — —

Away win 1.7% — — —

Over 2.5 85.6% — — —

Over 3.5 70.4% — — —

BTTS 43.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.2%

H 94% / xG 4.2-0.6 / O2.5 86% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 10.9%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 5–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 4–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aresimi4.2

Shkupi0.6

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.6% · O3.5 PROB 70.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARESIMI · PPG 1.38

SHKUPI · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Aresimi (H) 93.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 4.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shkupi (A) 1.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aresimi face Shkupi in Macedonia - First League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aresimi a 94% chance, the draw 5% and Shkupi 2%, so Aresimi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Aresimi and 0.6 for Shkupi (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aresimi are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.00 for Shkupi. This match finished 5-1.

Aresimi vs Shkupi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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