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Crusaders FC vs Portadown Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Crusaders FC

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Portadown

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.9%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.5%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 44.4% 2.25 +8.7%

Draw 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

Away win 24.9% 35.7% 2.80 -18.2%

Over 2.5 51.2% 55.6% 1.80 -7.8%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

BTTS 53.0% 62.5% 1.60 -15.2%

Home O1.5 48.3% 47.6% 2.10 +1.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 42.0% 2.38 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crusaders FC1.7

Portadown1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUSADERS FC · PPG 1.37

PORTADOWN · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Crusaders FC (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +8.7%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.1%

Portadown (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crusaders FC face Portadown in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crusaders FC a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Portadown 25%, so Crusaders FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Crusaders FC and 1.1 for Portadown (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crusaders FC are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 0.98 for Portadown. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Crusaders FC vs Portadown Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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