Today / Northern-Ireland - Premiership / Ballymena United vs Glentoran

Ballymena United vs Glentoran Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Ballymena United

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Glentoran

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.5%0-26.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.5%1-111.9%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.3%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.7%3-13.9%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 27.8% 3.60 +39.3%

Draw 26.5% 29.9% 3.35 -6.7%

Away win 34.8% 52.4% 1.91 -33.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 39.1% 35.1% 2.85 +11.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ballymena United1.4

Glentoran1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BALLYMENA UNITED · PPG 1.28

GLENTORAN · PPG 1.52

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ballymena United (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +39.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.7%

Glentoran (A) 34.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -33.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ballymena United face Glentoran in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ballymena United a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Glentoran 35%, so Ballymena United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ballymena United and 1.4 for Glentoran (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ballymena United are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.52 for Glentoran. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Ballymena United vs Glentoran Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

More Northern-Ireland - Premiership Predictions