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Linfield vs Cliftonville FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Linfield

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cliftonville FC

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.8%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.5%1-111.7%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 54.1% 1.85 -31.2%

Draw 25.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 37.5% 29.0% 3.45 +29.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.8% 1.73 -6.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 55.6% 1.80 -28.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 37.7% 2.65 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linfield1.5

Cliftonville FC1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LINFIELD · PPG 1.83

CLIFTONVILLE FC · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Linfield (H) 37.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -31.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

Cliftonville FC (A) 37.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linfield face Cliftonville FC in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linfield a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Cliftonville FC 38%, so Cliftonville FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Linfield and 1.4 for Cliftonville FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linfield are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.57 for Cliftonville FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Linfield vs Cliftonville FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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