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Broadmeadow vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Matchday 9 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 10:00

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Maitland

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 81% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.4%0-22.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.4%1-16.0%1-25.4%1-33.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.6%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.6%3-16.5%3-25.8%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-17.5%4+-26.7%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 59.5% 1.68 -8.4%

Draw 18.7% 25.0% 4.00 -25.2%

Away win 26.8% 27.0% 3.70 -0.8%

Over 2.5 80.5% — — —

Over 3.5 62.7% 54.1% 1.85 +16.0%

BTTS 76.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob76.6%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 77%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 2–2✓ 6.8%

#3 3–1 6.5%

#4 1–1 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadmeadow2.5

Maitland1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.5% · O3.5 PROB 62.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.00

MAITLAND · PPG 2.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

81%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

Broadmeadow (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -8.4%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -25.2%

Maitland (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadmeadow face Maitland in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadmeadow a 55% chance, the draw 19% and Maitland 27%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Broadmeadow and 1.8 for Maitland (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadmeadow are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.20 for Maitland. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Broadmeadow vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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