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Persijap vs PSBS Biak N. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 08:30

Persijap

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

PSBS Biak N.

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.1%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-18.9%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.2%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 89.3% 1.12 -25.9%

Draw 19.1% 14.8% 6.75 +28.9%

Away win 14.7% 5.9% 17.00 +149.9%

Over 2.5 60.7% 72.5% 1.38 -16.2%

Over 3.5 38.4% 51.3% 1.95 -25.1%

BTTS 54.0% 45.5% 2.20 +18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.0%

H 66% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persijap2.2

PSBS Biak N.0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIJAP · PPG 1.29

PSBS BIAK N. · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.29), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Persijap (H) 66.2%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -25.9%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +28.9%

PSBS Biak N. (A) 14.7%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +149.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persijap face PSBS Biak N. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persijap a 66% chance, the draw 19% and PSBS Biak N. 15%, so Persijap are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Persijap and 0.9 for PSBS Biak N. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persijap are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.43 for PSBS Biak N.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +149.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Persijap vs PSBS Biak N. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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