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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Chongqing Tongliang Long

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.1%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 45.5% 2.20 +12.0%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 54.2% 59.9% 1.67 -9.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 45.5% 2.20 +7.4%

Away O1.5 28.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.2%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing Tongliang Long1.8

Dalian Zhixing1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG · PPG 1.55

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing Tongliang Long (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +12.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Dalian Zhixing (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing Tongliang Long face Dalian Zhixing in China - Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Dalian Zhixing 25%, so Chongqing Tongliang Long are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.0 for Dalian Zhixing (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing Tongliang Long are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.75 for Dalian Zhixing. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions