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Rågsved vs Sleipner Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Rågsved

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sleipner

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.7%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-17.0%1-24.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.7%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-19.1%4+-25.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 41.8% 2.39 +32.4%

Draw 21.2% 27.4% 3.65 -13.6%

Away win 23.4% 42.0% 2.38 -26.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 69.9% 1.43 -3.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 46.1% 2.17 -5.6%

BTTS 62.6% 71.9% 1.39 -13.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 53.8% 1.86 +21.1%

Away O1.5 37.3% 53.8% 1.86 -30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.6%

H 55% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 1–2 4.5%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rågsved2.6

Sleipner1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RÅGSVED · PPG 2.00

SLEIPNER · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rågsved (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.39 · IMPLIED 41.8% EV +32.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.6%

Sleipner (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rågsved face Sleipner in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rågsved a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Sleipner 23%, so Rågsved are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Rågsved and 1.3 for Sleipner (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rågsved are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Sleipner. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +63.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Rågsved vs Sleipner Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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