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Nõmme United vs Laagri Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Nõmme United

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Laagri

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.5%0-22.9%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.6%1-17.7%1-26.4%1-33.6%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.7%3-16.1%3-25.2%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.6%4+-24.7%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 43.5% 2.30 +1.2%

Draw 21.6% 29.4% 3.40 -15.9%

Away win 34.4% 38.5% 2.60 -10.6%

Over 2.5 68.2% 69.4% 1.44 -1.8%

Over 3.5 46.0% 50.0% 2.00 -8.0%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 65.7% 55.6% 1.80 +18.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 1–2✓ 6.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United2.2

Laagri1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED · PPG 1.00

LAAGRI · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.9%

Laagri (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United face Laagri in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Laagri 34%, so Nõmme United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Nõmme United and 1.7 for Laagri (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.82 for Laagri. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Nõmme United vs Laagri Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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