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Bavois vs Grand-Saconnex Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 27 ·Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Bavois

PPG 1.62 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Grand-Saconnex

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+24.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.9%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-19.8%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.7%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.4%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 48.8% 2.05 +24.6%

Draw 21.0% 27.0% 3.70 -22.3%

Away win 18.2% 35.7% 2.80 -49.0%

Over 2.5 58.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.1% — — —

BTTS 55.3% 69.4% 1.44 -20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.3%

H 61% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 10.0%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bavois2.0

Grand-Saconnex1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAVOIS · PPG 1.62

GRAND-SACONNEX · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.62) > Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Bavois (H) 60.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +24.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -22.3%

Grand-Saconnex (A) 18.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -49.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bavois face Grand-Saconnex in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bavois a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Grand-Saconnex 18%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bavois and 1.0 for Grand-Saconnex (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bavois are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.92 for Grand-Saconnex. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Bavois vs Grand-Saconnex Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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