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Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Getafe

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Osasuna

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-113.4%0-25.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.4%1-113.3%1-25.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.1%2-16.6%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 37.0% 2.70 +2.9%

Draw 35.2% 36.5% 2.74 -3.5%

Away win 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 33.9% 2.95 +3.3%

Over 3.5 10.9% 16.0% 6.25 -19.1%

BTTS 48.3% 44.4% 2.25 +8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.3%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 16.4%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Getafe1.0

Osasuna0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GETAFE · PPG 1.33

OSASUNA · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Getafe (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +2.9%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -3.5%

Osasuna (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Getafe face Osasuna in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Getafe a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Osasuna 27%, so Getafe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Getafe and 0.8 for Osasuna (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Getafe are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.56 for Osasuna. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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