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Celta Vigo vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sevilla FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.8%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.9%1-111.4%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.3%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 57.8% 1.73 -13.0%

Draw 25.4% 27.8% 3.60 -5.1%

Away win 24.3% 21.3% 4.70 +8.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Over 3.5 31.4% 29.4% 3.40 +6.8%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0✓ 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo1.7

Sevilla FC1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.11

SEVILLA FC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.1%

Sevilla FC (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo face Sevilla FC in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Sevilla FC 24%, so Celta Vigo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Celta Vigo and 1.2 for Sevilla FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.00 for Sevilla FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Celta Vigo vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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