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Girona vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Girona

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elche

PPG 0.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.6%0-25.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.8%1-112.7%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.5%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 57.8% 1.73 -28.4%

Draw 28.1% 26.0% 3.85 +4.9%

Away win 30.5% 23.0% 4.35 +32.7%

Over 2.5 47.6% 59.9% 1.67 -20.5%

Over 3.5 24.5% 37.0% 2.70 -20.3%

BTTS 52.5% 61.7% 1.62 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.5%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Girona1.3

Elche1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIRONA · PPG 1.28

ELCHE · PPG 0.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.28) vs P(Home)=41.4%

Win probability 1X2

Girona (H) 41.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -28.4%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +4.9%

Elche (A) 30.5%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Girona face Elche in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Girona a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Elche 31%, so Girona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Girona and 1.2 for Elche (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Girona are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.39 for Elche. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Girona vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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