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Real Betis vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Real Betis

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Levante

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-111.0%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 44.4% 2.25 +15.7%

Draw 24.4% 29.9% 3.35 -11.0%

Away win 24.2% 32.8% 3.05 -15.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 31.0% 37.0% 2.70 -16.3%

BTTS 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Betis1.8

Levante1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.83

LEVANTE · PPG 0.89

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Real Betis (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.0%

Levante (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Betis face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Betis a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Levante 24%, so Real Betis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Real Betis and 1.0 for Levante (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Betis are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.89 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Real Betis vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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