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Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Alaves

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.2%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.3%1-113.3%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.0%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 41.3% 2.42 +1.9%

Draw 30.5% 29.9% 3.35 +2.2%

Away win 27.3% 35.7% 2.80 -14.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 17.9% 28.6% 3.50 -22.4%

BTTS 49.2% 57.1% 1.75 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alaves1.2

Rayo Vallecano1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAVES · PPG 1.50

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Alaves (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +1.9%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +2.2%

Rayo Vallecano (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alaves face Rayo Vallecano in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alaves a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Rayo Vallecano 27%, so Alaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Alaves and 1.0 for Rayo Vallecano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alaves are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.89 for Rayo Vallecano. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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