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Mallorca vs Real Oviedo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Mallorca

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Real Oviedo

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.4%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.8%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 69.0% 1.45 -24.5%

Draw 25.7% 22.5% 4.45 +8.6%

Away win 22.2% 15.6% 6.40 +25.3%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

BTTS 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mallorca1.6

Real Oviedo0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MALLORCA · PPG 1.67

REAL OVIEDO · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

64%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Mallorca (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -24.5%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +8.6%

Real Oviedo (A) 22.2%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mallorca face Real Oviedo in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mallorca a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Real Oviedo 22%, so Mallorca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mallorca and 0.8 for Real Oviedo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mallorca are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.56 for Real Oviedo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Mallorca vs Real Oviedo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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