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Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Real Madrid

PPG 2.56 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Athletic Bilbao

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.1%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.0%1-18.8%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-16.8%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-16.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 68.5% 1.46 -11.8%

Draw 21.9% 21.3% 4.70 +1.8%

Away win 17.8% 17.2% 5.80 +1.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 32.8% 45.5% 2.20 -27.8%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 60% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid2.1

Athletic Bilbao0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID · PPG 2.56

ATHLETIC BILBAO · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=60.4%

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -11.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +1.8%

Athletic Bilbao (A) 17.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid face Athletic Bilbao in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Athletic Bilbao 18%, so Real Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Real Madrid and 0.7 for Athletic Bilbao (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.83 for Athletic Bilbao. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 4-2.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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