← Back to picks 
Spain - La Liga Saturday, May 23, 2026 19:00 
Real Madrid PPG 2.56 
Athletic Bilbao PPG 0.83
Spain - La Liga Saturday, May 23, 2026 19:00 Real Madrid PPG 2.564-2 MISS
Athletic Bilbao PPG 0.83Away· +1.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.48 -12.5%
Over 3.5 32.8% Odds: 2.20 -27.8%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.62 -16.4%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-0 ✘
2nd 1-0 ✘
3rd 1-1 ✘
4th 2-1 ✘
5th 3-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid 2.15
Athletic Bilbao 0.74
Model Suggestion
Home -11.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -11.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+1.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+1.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 70 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 51%
O2.5/Under 60%
BTTS/No 64%
Score Hit 56%
ROI -19.9%
Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=60.4%