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Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:00

Villarreal

PPG 2.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico Madrid

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.9%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.4%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 40.8% 2.45 +19.1%

Draw 25.8% 27.4% 3.65 -3.5%

Away win 25.6% 38.8% 2.58 -20.4%

Over 2.5 58.2% 66.7% 1.50 -12.7%

Over 3.5 32.5% 45.5% 2.20 -28.5%

BTTS 59.1% 70.4% 1.42 -16.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.1%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal1.6

Atletico Madrid1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL · PPG 2.39

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 1.28

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=48.6%

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +19.1%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.5%

Atletico Madrid (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal face Atletico Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico Madrid 26%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Villarreal and 1.2 for Atletico Madrid (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.28 for Atletico Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 5-1.

Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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