Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Tips

← Back to picks

Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 38 Estadio de la Ceramica· Villarreal Sunday, May 24, 2026 19:00

Villarreal PPG 2.39

5-1 MISS

Atletico Madrid PPG 1.28

Home· +19.1% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.6%

Odds: 2.45 EV: +19.1%

Draw 25.8%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -3.5%

Away 25.6%

Odds: 2.58 EV: -20.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.2% Odds: 1.50 -12.7%

Over 3.5 32.5% Odds: 2.20 -28.5%

BTTS 59.1% Odds: 1.42 -16.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Villarreal

1.64

Atletico Madrid

1.23

Model SuggestionBTTS -16.1% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-16.1%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=48.6%