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Espanyol vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Espanyol

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Sociedad

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.9%0-25.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.2%1-112.2%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-18.4%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.9%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 47.2% 2.12 -22.6%

Draw 26.6% 27.0% 3.70 -0.9%

Away win 36.9% 32.3% 3.10 +14.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 28.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.9%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 0–0 6.7%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol1.4

Real Sociedad1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.39

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -22.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.9%

Real Sociedad (A) 36.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad 37%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Espanyol and 1.3 for Real Sociedad (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 0.89 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Espanyol vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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