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Netherlands - Eredivisie Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:30 
FC Utrecht PPG 1.88 
Fortuna Sittard PPG 0.88
Netherlands - Eredivisie Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:30 FC Utrecht PPG 1.882-0 HIT CS3
Fortuna Sittard PPG 0.88Away· +16.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.40 -14.0%
Over 3.5 41.9% Odds: 2.00 -16.2%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.50 -10.4%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✔
4th 3-1 ✘
5th 1-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Utrecht 2.17
Fortuna Sittard 1.13
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -14.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -14.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+16.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+16.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 31 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 55%
O2.5/Under 65%
BTTS/No 68%
Score Hit 55%
ROI -2.1%
Bet Hit 63% (8 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=53.3%