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FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

FC Utrecht

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fortuna Sittard

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.2%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.0%1-19.1%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.3%3-17.1%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.3%4+-23.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 68.5% 1.46 -22.2%

Draw 24.5% 21.3% 4.70 +9.1%

Away win 22.2% 17.4% 5.75 +16.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Over 3.5 41.9% 50.0% 2.00 -16.2%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Utrecht2.2

Fortuna Sittard1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC UTRECHT · PPG 1.88

FORTUNA SITTARD · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=53.3%

Win probability 1X2

FC Utrecht (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -22.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +9.1%

Fortuna Sittard (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Utrecht face Fortuna Sittard in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Utrecht a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Fortuna Sittard 22%, so FC Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Utrecht and 1.1 for Fortuna Sittard (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Utrecht are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for Fortuna Sittard. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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