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Netherlands - Eredivisie Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:30 
AZ Alkmaar PPG 1.88 
NAC Breda PPG 0.50
Netherlands - Eredivisie Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:30 AZ Alkmaar PPG 1.883-3 MISS
NAC Breda PPG 0.50Away· +32.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.38 -15.3%
Over 3.5 39.6% Odds: 1.95 -22.8%
BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.57 -14.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-0 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 3-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
AZ Alkmaar 2.25
NAC Breda 0.94
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -15.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -15.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+32.8%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+32.8%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=57.1%