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AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

AZ Alkmaar

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NAC Breda

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.9%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.2%1-18.7%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.3%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-17.0%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 74.6% 1.34 -23.5%

Draw 22.0% 18.9% 5.30 +10.0%

Away win 20.9% 13.5% 7.40 +32.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 39.6% 51.3% 1.95 -22.8%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AZ Alkmaar2.3

NAC Breda0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AZ ALKMAAR · PPG 1.88

NAC BREDA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=57.1%

Win probability 1X2

AZ Alkmaar (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -23.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +10.0%

NAC Breda (A) 20.9%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AZ Alkmaar face NAC Breda in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 57% chance, the draw 22% and NAC Breda 21%, so AZ Alkmaar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.9 for NAC Breda (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.50 for NAC Breda. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.8%. This match finished 3-3.

AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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