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FC Volendam vs Telstar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

FC Volendam

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Telstar

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.4%0-25.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.0%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 38.2% 2.62 +3.2%

Draw 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

Away win 34.5% 42.4% 2.36 -18.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Over 3.5 29.8% 42.6% 2.35 -18.0%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–2✓ 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Volendam1.4

Telstar1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC VOLENDAM · PPG 1.44

TELSTAR · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

FC Volendam (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +3.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.3%

Telstar (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Volendam face Telstar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Volendam a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Telstar 35%, so FC Volendam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Volendam and 1.3 for Telstar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Volendam are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Telstar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-2.

FC Volendam vs Telstar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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