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Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

Heracles Almelo

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Groningen

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.7%0-27.8%0-35.3%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.9%2-16.0%2-26.0%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.3% 20.4% 4.90 +14.4%

Draw 23.3% 21.5% 4.65 +5.0%

Away win 51.4% 65.4% 1.53 -21.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.7%

A 51% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2✓ 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 0–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heracles Almelo1.2

FC Groningen2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HERACLES ALMELO · PPG 0.94

FC GRONINGEN · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

69%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.94) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Heracles Almelo (H) 25.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +14.4%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +5.0%

FC Groningen (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heracles Almelo face FC Groningen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heracles Almelo a 25% chance, the draw 23% and FC Groningen 51%, so FC Groningen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Heracles Almelo and 2.0 for FC Groningen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heracles Almelo are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.25 for FC Groningen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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