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Netherlands - Eredivisie Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:30 
Heracles Almelo PPG 0.94 
FC Groningen PPG 1.25
Netherlands - Eredivisie Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:30 Heracles Almelo PPG 0.941-2 HIT CS2
FC Groningen PPG 1.25Home· +14.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team
45% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.38 -15.3%
Over 3.5 41.2% Odds: 2.00 -17.6%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.48 -11.6%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-2 ✔
3rd 0-2 ✘
4th 1-3 ✘
5th 0-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Heracles Almelo 1.24
FC Groningen 2.02
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -15.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -15.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+14.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+14.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 31 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 55%
O2.5/Under 65%
BTTS/No 68%
Score Hit 55%
ROI -2.1%
Bet Hit 63% (8 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team
DANGER 45%
Home weakness: POOR (0.94) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)