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Heerenveen W vs Ajax W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

Heerenveen W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ajax W

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.7%0-27.3%0-36.3%0-4+7.6%1 1-02.7%1-17.0%1-29.0%1-37.8%1-4+9.4%2 2-01.7%2-14.3%2-25.6%2-34.8%2-4+5.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.8%3-22.3%3-32.0%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 62.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 53.1% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 63% / xG 1.2-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 1–3✓ 7.8%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 0–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heerenveen W1.2

Ajax W2.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HEERENVEEN W · PPG 1.50

AJAX W · PPG 2.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Heerenveen W (H) 14.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ajax W (A) 62.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heerenveen W face Ajax W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heerenveen W a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Ajax W 63%, so Ajax W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Heerenveen W and 2.6 for Ajax W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heerenveen W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.10 for Ajax W. This match finished 1-3.

Heerenveen W vs Ajax W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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